In 1991, when the world best for the marathon was 2:06:50, an American physician named Michael Joyner wrote a now famous paper, published in the Journal of Applied Physiology, estimating the best possible time for a marathon runner. Over the past century, the world’s best time for the marathon dropped at an average rate of about five minutes per decade, driven by the professionalization of the sport as well as advances in shoe technology. In 1896, in the first Olympic marathon race, only one man broke three hours-the winner, Spiridon Louis, of Greece-and that race was less than 25 miles long, rather than the 26.2 that became standard in 1921. It was a science fiction idea, long dismissed by aficionados of the sport as a waste of time and energy. An American physician named Michael Joyner argued that the perfect time for the perfect athlete in perfect conditions was 1:57:58.
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